Long-term uncertainties in generation expansion planning: Implications for electricity market modelling and policy

Investment decision making in the energy sector is a complex process due to inherent long-term uncertainty. This work investigates importance of representing wide range economic and physical sources uncertainty modelling electricity market, both for investment descriptive market modelling. The results demonstrate that difference between deterministic stochastic solution increases non-linearly when uncertainties across multiple inputs are combined 109% higher than individual superimposed. Further, combining by adding limited number scenarios outperforms additional any source Additionally, purpose modelling, generation mix found optimisation differs significantly from average looking at individually, emphasising approach chosen represent Finally, individually underestimates price outcomes overestimates potential carbon dioxide emission outcomes, given